bep-reliability-engine v1.4.0: computational evidence for time-dependent backward erosion piping reliability of the Tokachi and Satsunai levees
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Source code and supporting computational evidence for the MSc thesis Time-Dependent Reliability Assessment of Levees against Backward Erosion Piping in a High-Gradient River System: A Case Study of Tokachi River Levees at Obihiro, Japan by Gijs Morten Rietman, Delft University of Technology, 2026. The engine evaluates a steady-state Sellmeijer criterion and the transient Pol piping criterion on shared Latin-hypercube samples, updates the fragility against the observed 2016 typhoon survival, and composes piping with overflow and fluvial scour into annual system failure probability under historical and +4 K climate ensembles. The two criteria are compared on one driving head and one set of exit conditions, so their difference is the effect of finite flood duration; sections whose survival was carried by drains are not conditioned on it; a year in which two mechanisms would fail is credited to the one that breaks through first. Version 1.4.0 corrects the aquifer thickness of one section (KP 57.4) and re-runs every result that depends on it, and adds the timing of pipe breakthrough against the flood peak. Probabilities are conditional on the stated model, soil, geometry, loading and …
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